Sept. 27, 2006

By Chris Huston

Special to CSTV.com from HeismanPundit

	Chris Huston The Heisman Pundit breaks down the top players for CSTV.com. E-mail here!

        ---   Column Archive   --- 7/30: DeSean Blazing Trail Toward Heisman? 5/15: Everything You Need To Know About Heisman `07 5/3: Boise's Johnson Now A Known Commodity 4/24: Rice Looking To Cook Up Heisman Season 4/11: Achilles Ankles 3/29: What's In A Name 3/13: Spiller Running Toward Stardom 2/27: Mr. Kentucky 2/5: Heisman Material? 1/30: Sometimes Diamonds In The Rough 1/23: 2007 Top 20 Heisman Favorites 1/18: Winners and Losers From Bowl Season 12/10: Heisman Still Special Despite Change 11/29: Who's On Third? 11/15: Rest of Field Jockeys Behind Top Two 11/8: Two at the Top 11/8: Under the Weight of Great Expectations 11/1: OSU's Smith, the Heisman Stronghold 10/25: Never Too Early To Look Ahead To `07 10/18: And Then There Were Two... 10/11: Leak Drops Out 10/4: The Wrench In The Works 9/27: The Plot Thickens 9/20: Cooled Off Irons 9/13: Five Alive 9/8: Quinn Still In Among Heisman Favorites 8/31: Heisman Preview

Reports of Brady Quinn's demise last week were greatly exaggerated.

While many were scrambling to write his Heisman obituary following Notre Dame's embarrassing loss to Michigan, I noted here that he was far from finished as a candidate.

Now, after a 319-yard, five-touchdown, come-from-behind performance against Michigan State, Quinn is not only back in the race, he's in good position to make a serious run at the trophy.

Four weeks into the season, the race remains a battle between four contenders:  Quinn, Troy Smith, Chris Leak and Adrian Peterson.  I have no doubt that one of these players is going to win the Heisman on Dec. 9.

But a lot can happen between now and then. 

The schedule is set up favorably for Quinn, as the Irish play seven relatively soft defenses in a row before a season-ending date with USC.  It doesn't take much foresight to project that Notre Dame should go into that game with a 10-1 record and Quinn should have some excellent numbers under his belt.  If the Irish beat a highly-ranked USC team in the Coliseum, then Quinn will be in good position to take home Notre Dame's eighth Heisman.

As good as things look for Quinn, he is not in as strong of a position as Peterson.  The junior Sooner is having a great season and is on pace for over 1,900 yards and 21 touchdowns.  He doesn't have any other running backs to contend with - Steve Slaton is a year away from serious consideration - while Quinn must battle for votes with fellow quarterbacks Troy Smith and Chris Leak.

More importantly, Peterson is the only candidate left whose candidacy won't be hurt if his team loses again.  That's because the Sooners are not seen as national title contenders this year due to the suspension of quarterback Rhett Bomar, who has since left the Oklahoma program.  Expectations have been lowered for OU and that gives Peterson some leeway when it comes to his team's overall record.  What's more, Oklahoma is viewed sympathetically after the Oregon fiasco and there will no doubt be an asterisk next to that loss in the minds of some voters.  If Oklahoma beats Texas, Peterson will likely cruise to the trophy, but even a Sooner loss in that game won't be fatal to his candidacy as long as he plays well.

Smith is the leader in many Heisman watches right now, but his problem is that he is not using all the tools at his disposal.  He built a reputation coming into the year as an exciting, dual-threat quarterback, but this season he has stuck to passing and hasn't made many plays in the running game.  He is doing well statistically, but at this pace he will throw for just 2,873 yards, which would be the fewest by a Heisman-winning quarterback since Vinny Testaverde had 2,557 in 1986.  He will need to surpass the 3,000-yard barrier to have a chance to win, which means he must pick things up in the next few weeks.  He also needs to accumulate some rushing yards.  Without his legs, he becomes just another quarterback and that hurts his candidacy. 

Leak is an intriguing candidate.  He is having a fantastic year so far and is on pace for a 3,400-yard, 39-touchdown season.   The three-game gauntlet of LSU, Auburn and Georgia will determine his fate.  If Florida can get past those teams and go on to win in the SEC title game, he may become the third Gator quarterback to capture the Heisman.

One thing in Leak's favor is that he could be the only candidate still playing on Dec. 2; Heisman ballots are due on Dec. 6.  

Sometimes, a last impression can make all the difference.

The Heismanpundit's Top 10

1.       Adrian Peterson -- He's got 643 yards and 7 TDs in four games and a bye week to prepare for the big game against Texas.

2.       Troy Smith -- As the quarterback on the No. 1 team, he's guaranteed to finish in the top three, but he needs to start putting up better numbers.

3.       Brady Quinn -- He's back on track now and should keep rolling until the Irish play USC in late November.

4.       Chris Leak -- Having a fantastic season, but has a tough schedule to navigate before he can make a serious run at the Heisman.

5.       Steve Slaton--Only a sophomore, so he can't win.  His momentum was slowed by his lackluster performance against East Carolina last week.

6.       Garrett Wolfe -- He is quietly on pace to challenge Barry Sanders' single-season NCAA rushing record.  If he gets anywhere near it, he'll be in New York come December.

7.       Michael Hart -- Steady and reliable, he will do just well enough to stick around the top 10 all year.  If he explodes in a win over Ohio State, he could move up.

8.       Marshawn Lynch -- Has put up three-straight 100-yard games since Cal's loss to Tennessee.  He could influence the race by taking West Coast votes from the main contenders

9.       Kenny Irons -- Won't put up the numbers needed to challenge for the Heisman, but he will get consideration as the star on one of the top teams in the country.

10.    Calvin Johnson -- He's the Biletnikoff front runner, which is usually good for more than a few Heisman votes.

With my top 10 out of the way, here's a look at this week's blogpoll.  Things are tightening up and it looks like Adrian Peterson has drawn even with Troy Smith.  First-place votes are in parentheses:

The CSTV Heisman Blogpoll Members

College Football Resource

College Game Balls

Heisman Pundit

In The Bleachers

Just College Football

Pitch Right

The College Football Independent

The Wizard Of Odds

The Heisman Blog Poll

1.       (tie) Troy Smith (4), Adrian Peterson (2) --

Pitch Right:  Credit the Ohio State "D" for the win against Penn State, but even with a poor statistical day, Smith is still a top 3 choice.  Games at Iowa, at Michigan State, and at Michigan will determine if he wins the award or not. 

College Football Independent: 128 yards and 3 touchdowns last week for Peterson.  A lot of people thought that the Sooners would suffer a hang-over after all the Oregon replay mess, but thanks to Peterson, the Sooners showed that they can move forward from the controversial loss and handle business as usual.

3.     Brady Quinn (1) -- Just College Football:  Just when you thought Brady Quinn had blown his golden opportunity at the Heisman, he comes up with a five TD performance and helps lead the Irish to a comeback victory in prime time against Michigan State. 

4.       Chris Leak -- College Football Resource:  On pace for well over 30 touchdown passes, something you don't see very often in the SEC.

5.       Steve Slaton -- Pitch Right:  Slaton was held for under 100 yards for the first time this season against East Carolina, but has plenty of opportunities to run wild in the next few weeks.

6.       Garrett Wolfe (1) -- College Game Balls:  A statistical beast. 198 yards rushing on 22 carries and 4 touchdowns.  Do the math.  That is nine yards a carry.  Not to mention he had 40 receiving yards.

7.       Michael Hart -- In the Bleachers:  Hart was held under 100 yards for the first time all year. It will be interesting to see if Hart still can put up impressive numbers against Big Ten quality defenses. The emergence of Chad Henne and Mario Manningham will also help Hart.

8.       John David Booty -- College Game Balls:  Booty struggled throwing deep consistently against Arizona.  However, he did throw a touchdown pass (and his first pick) and completed some throws when he needed to.

9.       Calvin Johnson -- Just College Football:  Johnson abused Virginia defensive backs on Thursday night in front of a national audience.  The Heisman voters were watching and will expect more of the same from this freak of nature.  

10.     Marshawn Lynch -- The Wizard of Odds:  Had only 74 yards in opener against Tennessee, but has been over 100 in three games since.