31-0: Why Butler Can Run The Table

The Bulldogs have a long way to go -- but a 31-0 regular season isn't inconceivable

Dec. 7, 2006

By Bryan Armen Graham

CSTV.com

	BRYAN GRAHAM Bryan is a basketball editor for CSTV.com and contributes on a regular weekly basis. E-mail here!

        ---   Column Archive   --- 7/12: Summer Vacations On The Hardwood 7/5: Slipping Through The Cracks 6/29: NBA Draft Superlatives 6/28: Draft Depth > Drama 6/25: The Bust Ratio 6/21: Tigers, Heels Top Early-Summer Top 25 6/21: Stuckey Shooting For 1st Round 6/18: Big Baby: "I'm Glad I Stayed" 6/14: Should I Stay Or Go? 6/7: The Trigger-Happy 10 6/7: Afflalo Finally Focuses On Own Skills 6/7: Why Billy Should Have Gone 5/31: More Fans in the Seats 5/24: Porter's Comeback Tale Takes Tragic Turn 5/17: Piecing Together the Puzzle 5/10: A Look at Personality Types 5/3: One Month After Atlanta 4/26: Should I Stay Or Should I Go Now? 4/19: Six Super Sophs 4/12: Making The Grade 4/5: March Madness Superlatives 4/3: Never Too Early To Look Ahead 4/3: Final Four Fodder 4/3: Gators Score Rare Championship Double 3/30: YOu Final (Four) Exam 3/24: Matta's Vision Realized With Ohio State Victory 3/23: South Regional Notebook 3/22: Tigers Silencing Critics 3/22: Handicapping the Sweet 16 3/21: 35-Second Clock: The First Weekend 3/17: Painful End For Xavier's Cage 3/13: The March Madness List of Lists 3/12: Second-Round Wish List 3/7: At the Knee of John Chaney 3/5: Niagara Outruns Siena in MAAC Title Victory 3/2: The Month In Hoops: February 3/1: Conference Calls 2/25: Corralled Oden Still Makes Difference 2/22: Rolling the Dice for Final Four Tix 2/19: Experience, Balance Help Wounded Panthers 2/15: Bubble, Yum! 2/8: Drexel Guts Out Crucial CAA Win at Hofstra 2/8: The Sharper Image: A Look Ahead 2/2: The Month In Hoops: January 2/1: Halftime: From A to Z 1/30: Freshman Saves Day For Surging Manhattan 1/25: Snakebitten Gaels Just Can't Get A Break 1/18: Calhoun, Roberts Revisit Wiggins Situation 1/14: Calhoun's Work In Progress At The Garden 1/11: Tigers Earning Their Stripes One Win At A Time 1/4: Strange Cases 1/2: The Month in Hoops - December 12/28: Mejia Powers "New Drexel 12/28: Seven Weeks Down: Taking Stock 12/21: Paulus Spirits Duke To Garden Victory Over Zags 12/21: Secret Santa: Helping Cagers and Coaches in Need 12/14: Villanova's Arizin Was Rags-To-Riches Story 12/10: Throwback Guard Jordan Has Brady Bunch Clicking 12/9: Seton Hall Wakes Up In Time To Tame Nittany Lions 12/7: 31-0: Why Butler Can Run The Table 12/5: Welcome Freshmen 12/3: Irish Upset Tops Day At BB&T Classic 12/1: The Month In Hoops: November 11/30: Youngest Graves Making Biggest Splash 11/24: Three Is A Magic Number For Unlikely NIT Champ Butler 11/22: No Morrison, No Problem For Zags in Upset of UNC 11/22: Tennessee Joins Roll Of Butler Upset Victims 11/17: Terps Edge Spartans For 2K Sports Classic Title 11/16: Spartans Snatch Classic Upset 11/16: Jinxed Jayhwaks Need To Get It Together 11/15: Icy Shooting Dooms Rutgers in Season-Opening Loss to K-State 11/12: Maggie Dixon Remembered 11/10: Starting Over in Morgantown 11/9: Before Keydren, Houston Was Scoring King 11/7: Stuck On You 11/6: Gillispie Has Aggies Positioned For Success 10/31: Five Frosh Faces 10/26: Climbing Ev'ry Mountain 10/24: Transfers of Power 10/23: Circle The Date 10/13: 65 Things to Know, Part IV 10/12: Starting Over in Baltimore 10/12: 65 Things to Know, Part III 10/11: Winthrop Stud Aims to Get Back to NCAAs 10/11: 65 Things to Know, Part II 10/10: 65 Things to Know, Part I THE HARDWOOD FLASH 11/1: Scheduling With Big Boys A Laughing Matter In Valley 10/26: UConn Still The Team Thabeet 10/19: Demon Daze 10/12: Southern Comfort 9/28: Playing The Numbers Game 9/21: Favorite Sun Returns to Silicon Valley 9/14: THe Head of the Class 9/8: Gavitt Rolls Back Years At Enshrinement 9/7: For Davis, Long and Winding Road Ends in Spokane 9/1: Preps Shine In Elite 24 Hoops Classics 8/31: Studying Abroad 8/24: Still Busting After All Those Years 8/17: Rematches Made In Heaven 8/10: Few's Good Men 8/3: House of Boateng 7/27: Tangled In The Web 7/20: Not-So-Big Baby 7/13: Vegas, Baby, Vegas 7/6: July's Recruiting Heat 6/29: Don't Expand 6/22: Calipari and C-USA 6/15: Cat Calls For Tubby 6/8: Down With Diploma Mills 6/1: Pepperdine's New Coach 5/25: Dunphy's New Chapter 5/18: No Rest At Florida 5/11: Recruiting Update 5/4: The Colonial Carousel 4/27: Are 65 Teams Enough? 4/20: NC State's Search 4/13: A Longer Season? 4/7: The Wright Move? 3/31: Final Four Flash 3/22: The Second Weekend 3/15: The First Weekend 3/10: The Tournament Edition 3/3: Gearing Up for the Tourney 2/23: Coming Down the Stretch 2/16: Calhoun Questions Calls 2/9: No Luck for the Irish 2/2: Big 5 Down to the Wire OTHER 8/31: The Moore Things Change... 8/30: UNH Rides High-Powered Offense 8/30: Previewing the I-A Independents 8/20: Old, Young Blend At IU 8/17: Looking For Leaders In L.A. 7/10: Reebok ABCD Camp: Best In Show 7/9: Reebok ABCD Camp: Day 4 Recap 7/8: Reebok ABCD Camp: Day 3 Recap 7/8: Reebok ABCD Camp: Day 3, Session 2 7/7: Reebok ABCD Camp: Day 3, Session 1 7/7: Reebok ABCD Camp: Day 2, Session 2 7/7: Reebok ABCD Camp: Day 2, Session 1 7/6: Reebok ABCD Camp: Day 1, Session 2 7/6: Reebok ABCD Camp: Day 1, Session 1 7/6: Reebok ABCD Camp: Holding the Mayo 7/5: Reebok ABCD Camp: Quick Hits 6/27: Top Five Sleepers 6/6: Miller's Crossing 5/4: Duke Wins Lance Thomas Sweepstakes 4/19: Sunny Future for Signee 3/13: Tribute to Chaney 3/7: Foye, Wright Get Big East Honors 2/27: A Class Above NCAA TOURNAMENT 4/4: Howland, Bruins Come Up Short 4/4: Final Four Fodder 4/3: Addition by Subtraction 4/2: Pitino's Bad Advice 4/1: Bruins Tame Tigers 4/1: Midnight Strikes For Mason 3/31: GMU Duo Survive to Reach Indy 3/31: Tigers and Bears, Oh My! 3/31: UF, Mason Crash NCAA Party 3/31: How They Got Here: LSU 3/31: How They Got Here: UCLA 3/31: How They Got Here: G. Mason 3/31: How They Got Here: Florida 3/27: Fairfax Feels Final Four Frenzy 3/26: Slipper Fits For George Mason 3/26: Let Us Praise Infamous Men 3/25: Patriots Look To Make History 3/24: UConn, Mason Move On 3/20: Subregional Wrap-Up 3/19: Ray, Foye Lift Villanova 3/19: Huskies Bend, Don't Break 3/18: Shakur Can Go Home Again 3/17: My Almost-Super Sweet 16 3/17: Cat Power: 'Zona, 'Nova Survive GRAHAM AT THE GAME 6/16: The U.S. Open: Collegiate Notebook 6/15: Do You Want Moore? 5/13: Notre Dame's Two-Sport Star Enjoys Balancing Act 4/22: Young Leads White in Jordan Classic 3/11: McNamara Spirits `Cuse to Title 3/10: Syracuse, Pittsburgh To Meet 3/9: Big East's New Top Seed 3/9: Old School Look In Big East 3/9: For Huskies, Now Or Never 3/8: Rutgers And Pitt Win Ugly 3/8: Two Close Contests in Big East 3/6: Iona Plucks Peacocks in MAAC

"Can Butler Go Undefeated?" columns will be all the rage a couple weeks from now.

This is the first one.

The Bulldogs, currently the No. 1-ranked team in the Ratings Percentage Index, improved their overall record to 10-0 on Wednesday night with a thorough beating of Ball State at Hinkle Fieldhouse. And while it's stupidly premature to even begin thinking about an accomplishment as infrequent and difficult as a perfect regular season, there's something about this Butler team I can't shake.

Out of equal parts superstition and respect, no one wants to be the first person to say it. But I'll be that guy: From where I stand, the still-underrated Bulldogs have a reasonable shot of running the table through conference play and entering the postseason at 31-0.

The Indianapolis university tabbed for no better than sixth place in the Horizon League during the preseason plays three more games against in-state competition -- Indiana State, Purdue and Evansville -- before opening their 16-game conference schedule against Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Dec. 30. There are just two other non-league dates in February: against a to-be-determined BracketBusters opponent and a Florida Gulf Coast team reclassifying from Division II.

Do I think Butler will go undefeated? Of course not. This is basketball, a momentum-driven game where off-shooting nights in foreign gyms with unfamiliar rims are the reality -- where the most listless David can beat the most formidable Goliath on the right night. Even more, every contest isn't played in a vacuum: With each successive victory, the size of the target on Butler's collective back will keep growing and the pressure to continue winning will mount. In fact, there's a fair chance that the Bulldogs don't get out of the month of December before getting tagged with their first loss.

But I'd estimate Butler has about a 15 percent chance of winning out through the regular-season finale, which is three or four times better than the prospects of any the other 13 remaining unbeatens. And here's why:

1.       The worst is behind them.

Not even the most entitled BCS conference elitist can hate on Butler's schedule. Thanks to their extended ride to the NIT Season Tip-Off title, the battle-hardened Bulldogs have notched two more victories against RPI Top 100 opponents (six) than any other team in college hoops.

But while their schedule to date ranks as the ninth-toughest in the nation, the remaining slate is easier than the female cast of The Real World: Denver. With 21 games to go, Butler faces no more than four Top 200 teams. Just two of those opponents fall in the Top 100: a Dec. 16 home date with Purdue (RPI No. 26) and their standard home-and-home series with Horizon League rival Loyola Chicago (RPI No. 91).

2.       A special special-preparation team.

Butler plays at one of the most deliberate paces of any team in the country, something which presents unusual challenges for any opponent.

The Bulldogs average 59.7 possessions per game. Only three of the 336 teams in Division I play at a slower tempo: Northwestern (57.1), Delaware State (54.3) and Princeton (52.5). What makes this relevant is that Butler has demonstrated an ability to impose that uncommon pace upon its opponents, taking its rivals out of their comfort zone and testing their resolve. Consider Butler's fastest opponent to date as an example: Tennessee.

The Volunteers are the fourth-fastest team in Division I, averaging 79.1 possessions in their games. In its 56-44 upset victory, Butler slowed the pace to 68 possessions, 11 less than their opponent's average. By the end of the game, a visibly frustrated Tennessee squad had been reduced to aimless passes around the perimeter and hurried 20-foot jump shots.

Butler's second-fastest opponent was Notre Dame, which averages 73.0 possessions. In its 71-69 upset loss, both sides had the ball just 62 times -- a total much closer to Butler's desired pace than Notre Dame's.

Even more important than the number of possessions has been the way Butler has used them -- with a deadly efficiency on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs average 117.3 points per hundred possessions (the 11th-best clip in Division I) and surrender just 86.2 (29th overall).

3.       They play the right way.

Mark Few had high if simple praise for the Bulldogs following Gonzaga's loss in the NIT Season Tip-Off championship game.

"They play basketball the right way," Few said. "They share it, they move it, and when the right guy's open he takes the shot."

It's that easy.

This isn't just another mid-major with a group of senior starters. The top eight players in Todd Lickliter's nine-man rotation are juniors and seniors, which is that much more important in a day and age where experience comes at a premium. Butler is a veteran unit with an unselfish team approach and chemistry (think the group West Virginia just graduated) which the traditional powers with their AAU all-star teams are desperately trying to manufacture.

One Long Night

With its 72-65 victory over Louisville on Tuesday in the nightcap of the Jimmy V Classic, Arizona improved to 10-1 under Lute Olson at Madison Square Garden.

"Our guys love the environment, they love the enthusiasm. The crowds here are great," Olson said. "I think some of it has to do with the way our guys play. People enjoy watching them play because they move the ball and they look like they're having fun out there, and that's the way it should be."

But in a down moment during his post-midnight press conference, the Hall of Fame coach noted that his all-time record at the World's Most Famous Arena is 11-1 -- thanks to a not-so-memorable victory over Long Island University during Olson's one-year stint at Long Beach State in 1973-74.

"They came out and held the ball," Olson recalled, noting that the game predated the shot-clock. "It was like 8-to-6 at halftime or something.

"It was a doubleheader and one of the other teams was Seton Hall coached by [current ESPN analyst] Bill Raftery. That was the most memorable of all the games, watching Bill on the sidelines. I think his team lost. Now, he doesn't lose any games."

Trivia Bag

Name the two conferences in college basketball without a single team whose record is .500 or below. (Answer below.)

Mr. 1,000

Congratulations are due to Evansville alum Jerry Sloan, who can become the fifth coach in NBA history to record 1,000 coaching victories Friday when his Utah Jazz travel to Minnesota.

Lenny Wilkens, Larry Brown, Don Nelson and Pat Riley are the four others that have reached the plateau. Rare air, indeed.

Sloan, the longest-tenured coach in pro sports, led the Purple Aces to back-to-back Division II national championships in 1964 and 1965, both times garnering Most Outstanding Player honors of the Elite Eight (the D-II equivalent of the Final Four). Sloan also holds the NCAA championship game record for rebounds with 25.

Trivia Answer

The Atlantic Coast Conference and the Missouri Valley Conference, which rank first and third in conference RPI, respectively.

Milli-Grahams

·         Bad news for Penn and Princeton. Bloomberg News has reported that the Ivy League's athletic directors are meeting in New York on Thursday to "decide whether to investigate" holding a postseason basketball tournament. Currently, the Ancient Eight is the only league in the nation which issues its automatic NCAA tournament bid to its regular-season winner.

·         All-American Nick Fazekas, who has never missed a single game during his four-year career at Nevada, is questionable for his team's Saturday game with in-state rival UNLV. The school's all-time leading scorer suffered bruised ribs during the Wolf Pack's victory over Cal on Sunday and has yet to receive medical clearance to practice. Fazekas has scored 1,970 points in 106 games at the Reno university and needs 30 more to become the 12th player in Western Athletic Conference history to reach 2,000.