March 25, 2008

By Phil Kasiecki

Special to CSTV.com

PHIL KASIECKI
Phil is the Sr. Editor of Hoopville.com, and contributes regular content to CSTV.com.
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        ---   Column Archive   --- 4/1: Putting Parity Aside 3/25: Don't Count Out These Dark Horses Yet 3/18: X-Factors: Five Players You Should Know For Friday 3/17: X-Factors: Five Players You Should Know For Thursday 3/11: George Mason Still Having Fun 3/4: Badger Balance 2/26: Longhorns Roping A No. 1 2/19: Outside Looking In? 2/12: Growing Up Fast 1/29: Hawks Spreading Their Wings 1/15: Don't Write In The Hoyas Just Yet 1/8: The Sun Is Starting To Shine On These Devils 1/1: Three Teams Ahead Of The Pack 12/28: Terps Taking Much-Needed Break 12/18: Transparent Cornhuskers 12/11: Biggest Of The Big Five 12/4: Hardwood Series Draws Rave Reviews 11/27: Beware of the Pirates 11/20: Not Necessarily Rebuilding In Miami 11/13: Atlantic Sun Already Out-Doing Itself 11/5: Speedier Spartans 10/24: Jayhawks Looking Much The Same 10/20: George Mason Returns To Top Of CAA 10/13: Graves Gives It One More Shot 6/27: Blossomed Green Ready For Next Level 6/5: Senior Standing 3/28: Points of Emphasis 3/21: A Season of Unpredictability 3/14: X-Factors: Friday's Games 3/13: X-Factors: Who to Watch on Thursday 2/28: Orange Closing In On NCAA Tournament 2/21: Familiarity Creates Parity Within Conferences 2/7: Big East Having A Down Year 1/31: Tale Of Two Divisions 1/23: Not A Sure Bet 1/17: In CAA, It's VCU 1/8: Providence Success No Surprise 12/18: Turning The Corner? 12/5: ACC and Pac-10 Back on Top 11/29: Questions Abound in Early Polls 11/20: Nothing Small About These Wins 10/30: MVC Has Cracked the Code 10/25: Neal Ready To Move Towson On Up 6/25: NBA Draft - P. O'Bryant 6/24: NBA Draft - C. Simmons 4/04: Final Four Reflection 3/29: A Colonial Invasion 3/22: The Value of Experience 3/15: X-Factors, Part II 3/14: X-Factors, Part I 3/11: Xavier's Home Court Advantage 2/21: Can The Colonial Step Up? 2/15: A Tiger Changes His Stripes 2/11: Patriot League Powers 2/08: The Lone Rangers 2/01: Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk 1/23: Rough Rides on Welcome Wagon 1/17: Not a Normal Start 1/16: Blue Devils Poised For Final Four 1/11: Eagles' Difficult ACC Childhood 1/09: As Good As The Hype 1/03: Contenders and pretenders

Of the 16 teams left, it's easy to pick the No. 1 seeds to all advance, and if one had to pick any of them to fall, the remaining No. 2 seeds are solid picks as well. Both Tennessee and Texas were in the running for No. 1 seeds until the last minute, so one can't go wrong expecting them to reach the Final Four.

But who are the real dark horses, the ones outside of those six teams that have a legitimate chance to advance past this weekend? We can't count the double-digit seeds because they don't really qualify as this; they aren't expected to advance further and doing so would be a great run. Each region has one team outside of those top seeds that would be a solid pick. Two teams were expected to be in that discussion before the season, one wasn't, and the other was the class of its conference and has looked like a dark horse Final Four contender for a while now.

East: Louisville

It's easy to pick Washington State out of this region, as at first glance the Cougars might be just the team to slow down the game against North Carolina and win a lower-scoring affair with the Tar Heels. But the Cardinals are an even better pick.

Louisville was expected to be Final Four contenders before the season. Injuries then hit early in non-conference play and the Cardinals weren't winning with the best basketball. Suspensions didn't help matters, as they at one point desperately needed Derrick Caracter and he proved he wasn't reliable.

But the Cardinals are healthy now and have gotten it together. They're playing solid defense, have great balance throughout their lineup and have plenty of players that are very valuable, none more so than David Padgett. Padgett's career was thought to be over months ago with another injury, but now he's a prime reason they're in this position. With him and everyone else healthy, the Cardinals now look like a classic example of a team that had some early adversity but recovered once they had their whole team together.

The Cardinals had two tough losses to end the regular season, but they were close ones against Georgetown and Pittsburgh. They're showing that those two are aberrations, and if they get past Tennessee, expect a dandy matchup with North Carolina as both teams could push the pace.

"We lost to two great teams. And they were playing, they just out-played us, I guess, those two games," said sophomore guard Jerry Smith. "But we're clicking right now, we're really focusing in and we are here to win."

South: Michigan State

Arguably the best matchup with a No. 1 seed in the regional semifinal is the Michigan State's matchup with Memphis. While much will continue to be made about Memphis' free throw shooting issues, the Spartans match up well with the Tigers because they're athletic and tough, so they can keep up with them. Thus far, they have turned up the defense, holding their first two opponents to 35 percent shooting.

Michigan State was expected to be a No. 1 seed and in the mix for a Final Four spot before the season. The Spartans fell off the map with a couple of losses, but they're still a dangerous team. Drew Neitzel has come back around and he has plenty of support, especially with freshman guard Kalin Lucas looking better all the time. They've also been through some adversity, as was the case with Louisville, although theirs was a little different than what the Cardinals went through. Still, that's another thing that helps, especially with Tom Izzo at the helm.

"We have been humbled enough this year," said Izzo. "That's the advantage of going through the kind of year we went through."

Remember, every four-year player under Izzo has been to a Final Four. The last time the Spartans went to the Final Four, they were a No. 5 seed in 2005 and knocked off the top two seeds in Austin. This team could do the same thing a few hours away in Houston.

Midwest: Wisconsin

The Badgers might be the easiest pick of all for a simple reason: they weren't supposed to be here. No one imagined that the Badgers would be Big Ten champs before the season, but Bo Ryan does nothing but win and has continued to do it this season and in the NCAA Tournament.

Defense has been the key for this team all season long, and it will be once again against Davidson with sharpshooter Stephen Curry. The Badgers held Kansas State to 0-for-13 from long range in the second round, and while repeating that against Davidson will be a tall order, they're certainly capable of slowing them down. Don't expect them to change what they do, either.

"I know that it's weird probably to hear that, but, you know, I'm not going to do anything different in the game when we play him because that's not me," said senior guard Michael Flowers, who will likely spend a lot of time against Curry defensively. "I don't play outside myself."

If they get past Davidson, it wouldn't be entirely shocking if they continued to surprise everyone except themselves and used their defense to take out No. 1 Kansas.

West: Xavier

The Musketeers are easily the most balanced team in the NCAA Tournament, and that along with their experience is reason to believe they can do this. There's an immense amount of trust in each other among the players, the primary reason for the balance. Each player knows his teammates are very capable, and any one of their top six scorers can have a big game.

Xavier has been through some turmoil a couple of seasons ago, then a challenging schedule this season and one where they've had a target on their back the entire time. That experience shows time and time again, and it certainly showed on Saturday against Purdue.

"Experience is everything," said senior guard Stanley Burrell. "It's made us battle-tested and ready for those situations where we stay together, and stay the course like coach always says and understand we still have times, we've got to make plays and make a couple of stops. The experience has been great for us throughout the whole year, whenever you get in tough situations just stay together and things will be fine."

If the Musketeers are to reach San Antonio, along the way they will likely have to get past a UCLA team that continues to find ways to win. If there is a team to knock off the Bruins before the Final Four, the Musketeers look like that team.