March 23, 2006

 

 

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---   Game Previews   ---   FINAL FOUR George Mason vs. Florida LSU vs. UCLA

---   Game Recaps   ---   NCAA FINAL Florida 73, UCLA 57 FINAL FOUR Florida 73, GMU 58 UCLA 59, LSU 45 ELITE EIGHT Florida 75, Villanova 62 G. Mason 86, UConn 84 (OT) LSU 70, Texas 60 (OT) UCLA 50, Memphis 45 SWEET SIXTEEN Villanova 60, BC 59 (OT) G. Mason 63, Wichita St.55 Florida 57, Georgetown 53 UConn 98, Wash. 92 (OT) UCLA 73, Gonzaga 71 Texas 74, West Virginia 71 Memphis 80, Bradley 64 LSU 62, Duke 54 SECOND ROUND WVU 67, NW State 54 UConn 87, Kentucky 83 Memphis 72, Bucknell 56 G. Mason 65, UNC 60 Bradley 72, Pitt 66 Georgetown 70, Ohio State 52 Texas 75, N.C. State 54 Villanova 82, Arizona 78 Duke 74, GW 61 Florida 82, UWM 60 Wichita St. 80, Tenn 73 BC 69, Montana 56 Washington 67, Illinois 64 LSU 58, Texas A&M 57 Gonzaga 90, Indiana 80 UCLA 62, Alabama 59 FIRST ROUND Bucknell 59, Arkansas 54 Northwestern St. 64, Iowa 63 OSU 70, Davidson 62 Arizona 94, Wisconsin 75 West Virginia 64, SIU 46 Georgetown 54, UNI 49 Villanova 58, Monmouth 45 UConn 72, Albany 59 NC State 58, Cal 52 Pitt 79, Kent State 64 G. Mason 75, MSU 65 UNC 69, Murray St. 65 Bradley 77, Kansas 73 Texas 60, Penn 52 Kentucky 69, UAB 64 Wichita St. 86, Seton Hall 66 UW-Milwaukee 82, Okla. 74 BC 88, Pacific 76 (2 OT) Florida 76, South Alabama 50 Tennessee 63, Winthrop 61 Montana 87, Nevada 79 Alabama 90, Marquette 85 UCLA 78, Belmont 44 Gonzaga 79, Xavier 75 LSU 80, Iona 64 GW 88, UNC-Wilm. 85 (OT) Illinois 78, Air Force 69 Texas A&M 66, Syracuse 58 Duke 70, Southern 34 Indiana 87, SDSU 83 Washington 75, Utah St. 61 OPENING ROUND Monmouth 71, Hampton 49

	ERIC MIRLIS Eric Mirlis is Senior Editor for CSTV.com and covers various collegiate sports. E-mail here!

        ---   Column Archive   --- 3/13: Snub Rub 12/19: Playoffs? It Could Make Sense 9/16: Don't Look A Gift Horse In The Mouth 3/23: Mirlis' Final Four-mula 3/15: Filling Out the Bracket

Four for four.

Last year, I used the history of team's seeding in the Sweet Sixteen to determine which teams would make the Final Four. I correctly predicted all four schools that advanced.

The numbers obviously don't lie.

So, it is time to get out the history books and the logic formulas once again. For those whose original brackets are busted, feel free to use this as your guide to who will win.

First, the parameters... The sample I will draw my information from starts with the 1979 NCAA Tournament, the first one that used the seeding method. But, there is one anomaly in the Final Four since 1979: in 1980, there were no No. 1 seeds. That is the only time it has ever happened, so for the purpose of this exercise, that year is being excluded.

As a reminder (not that anyone really needs one, of course), here is the field entering the Sweet Sixteen and their seeds:

Atlanta Regional: Duke (1), Texas (2), LSU (4), West Virginia (6)

Oakland Regional: Memphis (1), UCLA (2), Gonzaga (3), Bradley (13)

Washington DC Regional: UConn (1), Washington (5), Wichita State (7), George Mason (11)

Minneapolis Regional: Villanova (1), Florida (3), BC (4), Georgetown (7)

Now, let's start eliminating some teams...

·          No 13 seed has ever reached the Final Four. Bradley is out, but let's hope they stay in their game against Memphis longer than they are in this competition.

·          There has never been a Final Four with four No. 1 seeds. At least one must be eliminated.

·          Memphis and Villanova have each made a Final Four appearance, both in 1985. However, Memphis was a 2 seed, `Nova was the 8th-seed. That Wildcat team may have been one of the ultimate Cinderellas, but this time around, it won't be a fairy tale for either of these teams. Since neither has been there as a No. 1, both are now done.

·          UCLA is one of the most storied programs in college basketball history, but has never been to the Final Four as a 2 seed. Time for the Bruins to hibernate. We now have our first Final Four participant, as Gonzaga moves on to Indianapolis.

·          Gonzaga advancing with a No. 3 seed eliminates a lot of teams. Why? Because in years where a third-seed has gone to the Final Four, there has never been a higher odd-numbered seed there as well. So, a bunch of teams are now off the list: Washington, Wichita State, Georgetown and George Mason. And those eliminations make Connecticut our second Final Four team.

·          The Bulldogs knock a couple other teams out with yet another historical trend. Every time a No. 3 seed has gone to the Final Four, at least one seed number was represented twice. So, there must either be a second 1 seed, a second 3 seed or a pair of something else. Therefore, Texas and West Virginia can't advance.

Let's see where this puts us--

In: Gonzaga (3 - Oakland), Connecticut (1 - Washington)

Still Alive: Duke, and LSU (1, 4 - Atlanta); Florida and BC (3, 4 - Minneapolis)

Back to our show...

·          The only SEC team ever to make a Final Four as a No. 3 seed? Florida in 1994. BC is out, as the Gators take the Minny Regional. That also satisfies our pair of something that we needed.

·          One spot left. Duke or LSU - the game that kicks off the Sweet Sixteen...Did you know there has never been a Final Four with four odd numbered seeds? Never. So Duke is now out, leaving LSU the fourth spot in the field.

That gives us a Final Four of Connecticut, Gonzaga, Florida and LSU.

Before I go, I'll compare this to the Final Four I picked last week: Connecticut, Gonzaga, Texas and BC.

Looks like I'm hedging my bets. Of course, the numbers don't lie.