Feb. 19, 2008

By Phil Kasiecki

Special to CSTV.com

PHIL KASIECKI
Phil is the Sr. Editor of Hoopville.com, and contributes regular content to CSTV.com.
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        ---   Column Archive   --- 4/1: Putting Parity Aside 3/25: Don't Count Out These Dark Horses Yet 3/18: X-Factors: Five Players You Should Know For Friday 3/17: X-Factors: Five Players You Should Know For Thursday 3/11: George Mason Still Having Fun 3/4: Badger Balance 2/26: Longhorns Roping A No. 1 2/19: Outside Looking In? 2/12: Growing Up Fast 1/29: Hawks Spreading Their Wings 1/15: Don't Write In The Hoyas Just Yet 1/8: The Sun Is Starting To Shine On These Devils 1/1: Three Teams Ahead Of The Pack 12/28: Terps Taking Much-Needed Break 12/18: Transparent Cornhuskers 12/11: Biggest Of The Big Five 12/4: Hardwood Series Draws Rave Reviews 11/27: Beware of the Pirates 11/20: Not Necessarily Rebuilding In Miami 11/13: Atlantic Sun Already Out-Doing Itself 11/5: Speedier Spartans 10/24: Jayhawks Looking Much The Same 10/20: George Mason Returns To Top Of CAA 10/13: Graves Gives It One More Shot 6/27: Blossomed Green Ready For Next Level 6/5: Senior Standing 3/28: Points of Emphasis 3/21: A Season of Unpredictability 3/14: X-Factors: Friday's Games 3/13: X-Factors: Who to Watch on Thursday 2/28: Orange Closing In On NCAA Tournament 2/21: Familiarity Creates Parity Within Conferences 2/7: Big East Having A Down Year 1/31: Tale Of Two Divisions 1/23: Not A Sure Bet 1/17: In CAA, It's VCU 1/8: Providence Success No Surprise 12/18: Turning The Corner? 12/5: ACC and Pac-10 Back on Top 11/29: Questions Abound in Early Polls 11/20: Nothing Small About These Wins 10/30: MVC Has Cracked the Code 10/25: Neal Ready To Move Towson On Up 6/25: NBA Draft - P. O'Bryant 6/24: NBA Draft - C. Simmons 4/04: Final Four Reflection 3/29: A Colonial Invasion 3/22: The Value of Experience 3/15: X-Factors, Part II 3/14: X-Factors, Part I 3/11: Xavier's Home Court Advantage 2/21: Can The Colonial Step Up? 2/15: A Tiger Changes His Stripes 2/11: Patriot League Powers 2/08: The Lone Rangers 2/01: Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk 1/23: Rough Rides on Welcome Wagon 1/17: Not a Normal Start 1/16: Blue Devils Poised For Final Four 1/11: Eagles' Difficult ACC Childhood 1/09: As Good As The Hype 1/03: Contenders and pretenders

Imagine, if you can for a minute, the NCAA Tournament without Florida or Kentucky.

Hard to envision, isn't it?

Well, it could happen after the events of this past week. Kentucky enters this week at 13-10 overall and 7-3 in the SEC, while Florida dropped to 6-5 in SEC play after losing at home to LSU on Thursday and at Vanderbilt on Saturday -- the same Vanderbilt team that thumped Kentucky just a few nights earlier.

There is still plenty of basketball left to play, and each team will have its chances to play its way into the NCAA Tournament.  Chances are, though, one or both teams will have to win the SEC Tournament to get there because neither has a tremendous resume to this point and opportunities for signature wins are diminishing.

Entering this week, Florida's RPI is No. 58, thanks largely to its very soft non-conference schedule. The Gators' best win there was against Temple, a team that's been surprisingly good but is below them in the RPI. Kentucky enters the week at No. 71, with a better non-conference schedule but also one that had two notable home losses, against Gardner Webb and San Diego, and a four-game losing streak.

With San Diego being a contender in the West Coast Conference, that loss isn't looking so bad right now. The Gardner-Webb loss will still hurt, but last week's thumping at Vanderbilt wasn't good either, because it comes later in the season and can't be chalked up to being part of a bad stretch where injuries or another issue hurt the team. At the end of the day, last week's loss could just be one ugly loss, but the Wildcats already got their mulligan with the Gardner-Webb loss.

Billy Gillispie said he tried hard to get his team to realize this is just one loss and not let it snowball into something more damaging. If Saturday's win over LSU is any indication, they seemed to bounce back okay.

"They've been playing hard all year," said the first-year head coach. "They focused on the five in a row we had won prior that game and didn't focus on the tough night we had against a really good team on their home court. There was no question in my mind that we were going to come back because we have the toughness to be able to do that."

The Gators are a young bunch and were gutted by early defections to the NBA, hence the soft non-conference schedule. They are relying on upperclassmen who were previously role players, such as Walter Hodge, and freshmen and sophomores. After starting off SEC play with some promising wins, the Gators have now lost four of five. There's little shame in losing at Arkansas, at Tennessee and at Vanderbilt, but last Wednesday's home loss to LSU stings considering this team's non-conference slate doesn't give them a great deal of room for error. While several SEC coaches said LSU is far better than their record indicates, a loss to them isn't going to be one the NCAA committee looks at as a "good loss."

It's possible that the young Gators are hitting a wall, although opponents have had more opportunity to scout them and that surely plays a role as well. As important as their young players are, that's had a noticeable effect on this team.

"Unfortunately, we've got a lot of them right now that we're relying on," said head coach Billy Donovan of the freshmen.

The Gators are struggling to shoot of late, shooting 39 percent on Saturday and making just 1-of-15 from behind the arc in that game. The bright spot is that they made enough plays inside to make it a ballgame, a sign that they're trying hard to get through this tough stretch.

"I told the guys we have to stick together and we have to grind no matter what," Hodge said after Saturday's game. "They're doing a great job and we are trying to stay together."

What helps both teams is that there are many teams with similar profiles this season. There aren't a lot of teams that you can look at and say are locks for the NCAA Tournament at this point, as many teams have warts on their resume that range from no good wins to a couple of bad losses. The Gators and Wildcats are in the same boat as many others, and even a profile like what each has now could certainly get in barring any bad losses the rest of the way.

With both teams potentially having bubble status in the weeks ahead, one date could loom large, and that's the final Sunday before the SEC Tournament.