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Tuesday @ The Rink

CHAT LIVE With USCHO's Jayson Moy

Welcome to the CSTV.com moderated chat room!

On Tuesday, January 24 at 2:00 p.m. ET, USCHO's Jayson Moy stops by "Tuesday @ The Rink", presented by CSTV.com and USCHO.com. Jayson will be talking Bracketology and discussing the recently released PairWise Rankings.

** GET YOUR QUESTIONS IN NOW!!: Jayson won't be stopping by until 2:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday, January 24th, but feel free to submit your questions now and we'll save them for his arrival!
CSTV.com Moderator: Welcome back to "Tuesday @ The Rink". We are now joined by USCHO Bracketologist Jayson Moy.
Jayson Moy: Hello everyone! Looks like I've fueled some good debate with the first bracketology article and some good confusion. There's plenty more to come in the next few weeks, but hopefully I can try to clear it all up.

Chip K Portland, Me: As a Maine fan and my Black Bears with a 21st P.W ranking I am deeply worried about the prospect of Maine making the tournament. What do they need to do to move up? And is there enough games left to make that move?
Jayson Moy: It's certainly possible that Maine can make the move. If many of you recall, around this time last year I declared Maine dead in the water and out of the tourney. They made it into the tourney. But here's what has to happen. Maine still has games left against UNH, Vermont, BC and UMass. Needless to say, wins need to happen there, and then Maine has to get to the the HE Championship Round. It's not impossible, but I think it's a lot tougher this year.

Andrew Mitchell, Grand Rapids, MI: In your mock 2006 NCAA bracket,as of Jan 22, you project Harvard gets an at large bid in the tournament when there are 5 other teams with a higher RPI. Why?
Jayson Moy: That all comes down to the simple PairWise Ranking. Harvard is tied for 9th with 18 comparison wins. Breaking the ties, that puts them in 12th place, good enough to make the tournament. Remember, the RPI is only a component of the criteria, there are three other criteria that make up the selection. So if your RPI is higher than another team's, it doesn't mean you get into the tournament based upon that.

Michael (St. Cloud): If the Gophers pass Wisconsin in the PWR and both teams recieve number 1 seeds, do you believe that the NCAA will send Wisconsin to Grand Forks and Minnesota to Green Bay or will Wisconsin go to Green Bay for attendance reasons no matter what happens?
Jayson Moy: I think you have to go with geography in this case. If Wisconsin is a number one seed, which it almost a 100% lock, they'll go to Green Bay. Minnesota could be equidistant from the two sites, so I think if they both have one seeds and are 1 and 2, Minnesota goes to Grand Forks and Wisconsin goes to Green Bay, no matter which order they're in.

Brian (Boston, MA): Hockey East would have only one team in the NCAAs if the season ended today. What do you think is the major factor: mediocre upper level Hockey East teams or an unusually horrible bottom two teams (NU and MC) ruining the conference RPI? I know you are an ECAC guy, but I can't see the 4th place ECAC team being better than the 2nd place Hockey East team.
Jayson Moy: The numbers right now do say that the fourth place ECAC team is better than the second place team, but that's an argument or debate for another time. As for Hockey East, there are number of factors, some of what you say goes with that. Hockey East is hovering at .500 in non-conference games, which doesn't help, and the fact that the lower portion of the league is weak doesn't help the RPI. It's just a situation where HE is not strong from top to bottom this year.

Alan (Denver): Jayson: Denver is around #20 in the PWR right now and plays some quality teams down the stretch in Minnesota, UND and CC, plus the WCHA playoffs. What are DU's chances to make up enough ground in the PWR to make the NCAA's, assuming they win about 75% of their remaining games?
Jayson Moy: I think Denver has a great chance to make the NCAA's if they win 75% of their games. Denver is losing some comparisons because of RPI, and with wins over those teams, it only helps. Right now they are losing 4-5 comparison due to RPI only.

Alex(Durham,New Hampshire): Hey Jayson. As a huge UNH hockey fan i'm starting to get a little anxious on wheather they will be admitted into the NCAA tourtament. What do you think about UNH and their chances of getting into the tourtament?
Jayson Moy: Don't lose.

Paul Boston: What's it going to take for B.U.to make the N.C.A.A.?
Jayson Moy: Just win, baby.

Dave (Michigan): Why are there projected to be 5 CCHA schools in the playoffs at this time? Their out-of-conf. records are not that superior to other conferences such as the WCHA. Nothing against UN-Omaha, but how is it fair that they have a better chance to make the NCAAs versus Lake Superior State which is having a great season? These methods in calculating PWR seem to benefit the usual bigger schools and hinder the smaller schools (with exception to the autobids in such conferences as CHA, AH), shouldn't there be a better method to the NCAA bid selection?
Jayson Moy: The PairWise is not perfect, I think everyone realizes that, but the NCAA feels that this logic is the best method at the moment. To address UNO vs. LSSU, let's take a look at their schedules. LSSU has played Colgate, Robert Morris, Bemidji out of conference. UNO has played Army, UNH, UAH, Yale, Minnesota State, Providence and Holy Cross. LSSU has played two games against Teams Under Consideration, going 1-0-1 against Colgate, while UNO has played 3, going 3-0. That's a major consideration here and helpful point for UNO. Those out of conference games have raised UNO's RPI and helps the TUC criteria. And lastly, I disagree with the notion that the PWR hinders smaller schools. It's your schedule and who you beat that decides your NCAA fate.

Lou (Providence): I know it's a down year for hockey east, but only 1 bid (as of 1/21), can this really be? and with BU, Prov, VT, ME and UNH all playing each other down the stretch -- can the landscape change without someone really breaking away from the pack and rattling off a major win streak? How much would a BU win over Harvard in the B-Pot opener mean for hockey east as a whole?
Jayson Moy: Hockey East can take pride by winning the Beanpot again, no question about it. BU winning over Harvard would go a long way towards helping BU get into the tournament as well. With all of those HE schools playing each other down the stretch, if no one emerges from it, it will be the bubble for everyone in that grouping and it won't help anyone else. These schools have to look for other teams on the bubble to falter. Therefore in the CCHA, you're rooting for teams like UNO, NMU, Ferris, UAF, Ohio State to go on losing streaks. At the same time, you hope that teams you have played and beaten are in consideration. Also, if you're UNH, you're hoping that Niagara doesn't win the CHA.

Matthew (San Antonio): The Badgers looked like a different team without Elliot. How do they stack in the country with him and without him with regard to who's the best team compared to current #1 BC?
Jayson Moy: I don't necessarily think Wisconsin looked different. I watched both games this weekend and I thought that Wisconsin was playing a little tight, trying to not make a mistake and at the same time Denver came to play. No worries Badger fans, you'll see them in Green Bay, with a number one seed, and still a heavy favorite to advance to Milwaukee and to win the whole thing.

jon (columbus): Hey jayson if a team that is projected to be a #1 or #2 seed in the ncaa tournament but gets upset and doesn't even make it passed the first round of there own league tournament, would that team still make the tournament. thanks
Jayson Moy: Absolutely. If Wisconsin lost twice in the first round of WCHA tournament, they would still be in. Perhaps not as the overall number one seed, but they would be in. It happens all the time. That's part of the reason the NCAA went to these criteria, so that things like that wouldn't happen. Right, CC fans?

Steve(Somerville): What do you think of PC's odds of making the NCAA's?
Jayson Moy: Providence needs to build up it's wins over Teams Under Consideration. They have a high enough RPI, but they're only 5-7-1 right now against TUC's. With three games against UNH left, two against Vermont and one against BC, they need to win those games. Providence does hold its fate in its own hands I believe. Other things which they should hope for: Clarkson, Rensselaer and UNO falling off the map. The three losses to these three teams are hurting them right now.

Avan (Boston): Hey Jayson, First of all, LOVE your work with the PWR...I look forward to it every week. How legit do you think BU is? Do they have enough to make a serious run in the Hockey East and the NCAAs? Thank you and keep up the good work!!!
Jayson Moy: Thanks for the kind words, you'll make my ego larger than it already it. As for BU, never count out the Terriers. You've seen it all the time. With games against BC, Harvard, UNH and UVM left, they need to step up. Which we all know Jack Parker teams can do.

Brian (Minneapolis, MN): Since these projections are calculated as if the season ended today. Which 4 teams currently in your bracket will be out, and which 4 teams could take their place once the final pairings are made in March?
Jayson Moy: Wow, that's a tough one. But I'll give it a shot. I think the dangers here lie with UNO, Ferris State, Colgate (which I have in the tourney right now only because they're leading the ECACHL) and I will say Harvard. UNO and Ferris may get eaten up in the CCHA, but then again, they might flourish. I can't predict a thing in the CCHA right now, who could wind up with 6 teams in the tourney or 3 teams in the tourney. As for who will replace them, UNH, BU, NMU, Ohio State are four that quickly come to mind. The PairWise is so volatile right now with so many games left, but if you're making me pick, there we go.

Mike Lentz (Lakeville, MN): Just because I'm curious who you think will be in there at the end, who's your picks to be in the Final Four?
Jayson Moy: Love the way Minnesota is playing right now. I love the way Wisconsin has looked all year. I'll take the two of them to start. And then I'll throw in Cornell, who seem to be just starting to gear up, and the fourth team, well, I'll go with Miami because I love their defense, Andy Greene and two goalies you can't go wrong with.
CSTV.com Moderator: That is all of our time with Jayson this afternoon.
Jayson Moy: Thanks to everyone for coming by today. There's a long way to go, so root your teams on, get out there and support this game we love. See you soon!
CSTV.com Moderator: Thanks for joining us for another edition of "Tuesday @ The Rink". Don't forget, next week is a Beanpot Special, with BU Coach Jack Parker joining us at 1:00 Eastern and Harvard Coach Ted Donato at 2. See you then.

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