2002 BIG DANCE BUBBLE WATCH
As of 03/10/02
ACC (4 BIDS)
NCAA LOCKS: Duke, Maryland, NC State, Wake Forest
BUBBLE BURSTS: Virginia
After starting the season 14-2, Virginia (No. 42 RPI) collapsed like Enron, losing nine of its final 12 games. Even with a win over Duke, the Cavs finished 7-9 in the ACC and probably saw their Big Dance hopes dashed with a loss to NC State in the first round of the ACC Tournament, where they have been winless since 1995. The Wolfpack is headed to its first Big Dance since 1991. Elsewhere in the ACC, Duke and Maryland are likely candidates for the Final Four. Wake Forest is 0-7 against Top 10 teams and lost five of its last eight regular season games, but its No. 20 RPI makes it a lock for the Big Dance.
ATLANTIC 10 (1 BID)
AUTOMATIC BID: Xavier
BUBBLE BURSTS: St. Joseph's, Dayton, St. Bonaventure, Temple
Xavier is easily the highest rated Atlantic 10 team in at No. 24 in the RPI, followed by No. 56 St. Joseph's, No. 72 Dayton, No. 76 Temple and No. 81 St. Bonaventure. The Musketeers beat Richmond in the conference title game and will be the A-10's only team in the Big Dance.
BIG 12 (6 BIDS)
NCAA LOCKS: Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
ALSO IN: Missouri
BUBBLE BURSTS: Baylor, Colorado
The Big 12 is No. 3 in the latest conference RPI, with five teams in the RPI top-20. Big 12 title game opponents Kansas (RPI No. 1) and Oklahoma (RPI No. 4) both have strong cases for No. 1 seeds in the Big Dance. Oklahoma State (RPI No. 15), Texas Tech (RPI No. 17) and Texas (RPI No. 19) should also get fairly high seeds. Missouri is No. 50 in the RPI, but it would be tough to imagine a Big 12 team with 20 wins being denied a Big Dance berth, and the Tigers reached that plateau with their 72-69 win over No. 12 Oklahoma State, then picked up win No. 21 by beating Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament.
BIG EAST (6 BIDS)
NCAA LOCK: Miami, Pittsburgh, Connecticut
ALSO IN: Notre Dame, St. John's, Boston College
BUBBLE BURSTS: Syracuse, Rutgers, Villanova, Georgetown
Boston College (RPI No. 45) and St. John's (RPI No. 31) both won in the opening round of the Big East tournament, each reaching 20 victories for the season. No Big East team with 20 wins has ever been denied a Big Dance berth... until now. Syracuse (RPI No. 58) is about to earn that dubious distinction, as the Orangemen were knocked off by Villanova (RPI No. 46), which makes nine losses in their last 13 games. Villanova then lost a heartbreaker to UConn. Georgetown (RPI No. 54) also could have gotten into the mix, but they are NIT bound after an overtime loss to Miami. So if -- and it's a big if -- the Big East gets six bids, BC looks like the sixth team. But since the Big East is No. 5 in the conference RPI, it could easily receive only five berths.
BIG TEN (5 BIDS)
NCAA LOCKS: Indiana, Illinois, Ohio State
ALSO IN: Wisconsin, Michigan State
BUBBLE BURSTS: Iowa, Minnesota
Don't look now, but Iowa is one win away from winning the Big Ten tournament and an automatic bid for the Big Dance. It really shouldn't come as a surprise that a team with a No. 78 RPI is making a run through the Big Ten, though. This is the worst year in recent memory for the Big Ten, which is No. 6 in the RPI and boasted unranked Wisconsin (RPI No. 44) as its top-seed in the conference tournament. If Iowa beats Ohio State for the conference title, the Big Ten will receive six berths. Otherwise, it will get five, which is still one more than the ACC, which is No. 2 in the RPI. RPI No. 9 Illinois won nine in a row and was finally playing up to its preseason hype before being beaten in the tournament semifinals by the Buckeyes. Indiana (RPI No. 16), Ohio State (RPI No. 22) will join the Badgers and Illini in the Big Dance, along with a Michigan State squad which rallied for five straight wins to end the regular season at No. 29 in the RPI. The Spartans have nonconference wins over Oklahoma and Arizona. Minnesota (RPI No. 57) saw its hopes evaporate in the regular season finale, when it let Illinois go on a game-ending 10-0 run to pull out a one-point win.
BIG WEST (1 BID)
AUTOMATIC BID: UCSB
BUBBLE BURSTS: Utah State
UCSB surprised Utah State for the Big West title. Now all of the bubble teams from major conferences will be crossing their fingers and hoping the Aggies don't claim an at-large berth. At No. 18 in the conference RPI, the Big West might not merit an at-large berth. But Utah State (RPI No. 59) has quality wins over Utah and BYU, and a similar RPI to Southern Illinois and Wyoming, so it has a solid case for a bid.
CONFERENCE USA (2 BIDS)
NCAA LOCK: Cincinnati, Marquette
BUBBLE BURSTS: Charlotte, Memphis, South Florida, Houston, Louisville
Both Cincinnati (RPI No. 5) and Marquette (RPI No. 26) suffered stunning losses down the stretch, but the Bearcats remain in the thick of the hunt for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Charlotte, whose athletic director is on the NCAA selection committee, lost five of its last nine to finish 18-11, so the 49ers are very much on the bubble. Charlotte has a No. 35 RPI, but is just 1-7 against teams with an RPI of 50 or better. Memphis has an impressive 22-9 record, but its RPI is No. 60 because of a dismal No. 188 strength of schedule. The Tigers missed a golden opportunity in their regular season finale when they lost to Cincinnati in overtime, then suffered a costly loss to Houston in the first round of the Conference USA tournament.
HORIZON (2 BIDS)
AUTOMATIC BID: Illinois-Chicago
ALSO IN: Butler
BUBBLE BURSTS: Detroit
Butler (RPI No. 79) put itself in a very tough spot by losing at home to eighth-seeded Wisconsin-Green Bay in the first round of the Horizon League tournament. After beating Indiana, Ball State and Purdue, the Bulldogs stumbled early in conference play, but won nine of their final 10 regular season games. Now Butler must hope its 25-5 record (including 13-0 in nonconference play) outweighs its RPI and its No. 301 strength of schedule on Selection Sunday. Butler and Charlotte are the two teams we're considering for the final at-large berth. We're giving the razor-thin edge to the Bulldogs.
MAC (1 BID)
AUTOMATIC BID: Kent State
BUBBLE BURSTS: Bowling Green, Ball State, Ohio
Few teams in the nation are hotter than MAC champion Kent State (RPI No. 32), which has won 18 in a row and 23 of its last 24, running its record to 27-5. Bowling Green (RPI No. 69) beat Ball State (RPI No. 80) had solid seasons, but their RPI is probably too low to merit at-large berths.
MISSOURI VALLEY (2 BID)
AUTOMATIC BID: Creighton
ALSO IN: Southern Illinois
After their loss to Creighton in the MVC title game, Southern Illinois (RPI No. 52) has a shot at an at-large bid. Compared to some other bubble teams, the Salukis are 22 spots higher than Butler and eight spots above Memphis in the RPI. Plus, Southern Illinois has something Memphis doesn't: a quality win. The Salukis beat Indiana, while none of the Tigers' 22 wins came against teams ranked in the RPI top-50. So at the moment, we're putting the Salukis in, but their status could easily change as the major tournaments play out.
MOUNTAIN WEST (3 BIDS)
AUTOMATIC BID: San Diego State
ALSO IN: Utah, Wyoming
BUBBLE BURSTS: UNLV, BYU
San Diego State, the surprising Mountain West champion, is going to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1985. Suddenly the Aztecs are one of the nation's hottest teams, having won eight of their last nine games to improve to 21-11 overall. Now the question is whether the MWC will get one or two at-large berths. Utah was upset by UNLV in the semifinals of the Mountain West tournament, but the Utes are No. 21 in the RPI. Wyoming won the regular season MWC title, jumping 21 spots to No. 55 in the latest RPI after beating BYU and Utah in a span of three days. But the Cowboys didn't fare well in the tournament, edging eighth-seeded Air Force in overtime and then being stunned by SDSU. UNLV entered the MWC tournament at No. 68 in the RPI, so it needed to win the automatic berth in order to advance. BYU is No. 43 in the RPI but ended the regular season with costly losses at Wyoming and Colorado State, then fell to SDSU in the opening round of the MWC tournament, so the Cougars are pretty much out of contention.
PAC-10 (6 BIDS)
NCAA LOCKS: USC, Arizona, Oregon, Cal, Stanford
ALSO IN: UCLA
No. 7 Arizona is the only Pac-10 team in the RPI top-20. But the top-six teams in the Pac-10 are all in the RPI top-32. There's a big dropoff after that, as Arizona State checks in at No. 88. In the regular season, Oregon won its first conference crown in 57 years, but got knocked out by USC in the Pac-10 tournament semifinals. Arizona won the Pac-10 tournament.
SEC (6 BIDS)
NCAA LOCKS: Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi State
ALSO IN: Ole Miss
BUBBLE BURSTS: South Carolina
According to the RPI, the SEC is the nation's strongest conference, and it's easy to see why. Alabama (RPI No. 6), Kentucky (RPI No. 8), Georgia (RPI No. 11), Mississippi State (RPI No. 12) and Florida (RPI No. 14) are in the hunt for top-two seeds. Ole Miss (RPI No. 48) stumbled down the stretch, losing five of seven, but reached the magical 20-win mark with a resounding 84-56 win against Alabama. But don't count out South Carolina (No. 62 RPI), which claimed wins over Ole Miss and Kentucky in the SEC tournament. We're still giving the edge to the Rebels, who had a stronger regular season than the Gamecocks.
WAC (2 BIDS)
AUTOMATIC BID: Hawaii
ALSO IN: Tulsa
BUBBLE BURSTS: Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, SMU
Hawaii (RPI No. 34) beat Tulsa (RPI No. 33) for the WAC title, completing a three-game sweep of the Golden Hurricane. At 26-6, Tulsa deserves to go to the Big Dance. But at No. 10 in the conference RPI, the WAC might only get one berth.
WEST COAST (2 BIDS)
AUTOMATIC BID: Gonzaga
ALSO IN: Pepperdine
At No. 6 in both major polls, Gonzaga is finally getting the respect three straight trips to the Sweet 16 should earn a program. Now we'll see if the selection committee finally gives the Zags a decent seed (meaning no lower than a No. 3 seed). Now the question is whether the Waves (RPI No. 47) can get an at-large bid. In nonconference action, they have beaten USC, UCLA and BYU while losing to Georgia, Arizona, Oregon and UC Irvine. While their 7-6 nonconference record hurts, Pepperdine has too many big wins to ignore.
OTHER AUTOMATIC BIDS
America East: Boston U.* Mid Continent: Valparaiso*
Atlantic Sun: Florida Atlantic* Northeast: Central Connecticut*
Big Sky: Montana* Ohio Valley: Murray State*
Big South: Winthrop* Patriot: Holy Cross*
Colonial: UNC-Wilmington* Southern: Davidson*
Ivy: Penn* Southland: McNeese State*
MEAC: Hampton* Sun Belt: Western Kentucky*
Metro Atlantic: Siena* SWAC: Alcorn State*
* = Won an Automatic Bid
LAST IN
Southern Illinois, Boston College, Wyoming, Butler
LAST OUT
Charlotte, Utah State, Virginia, Memphis, Syracuse
NO. 1 SEEDS
East: Duke; South: Maryland; Midwest: Kansas; West: Oklahoma
NO. 2 SEEDS
East: Connecticut; South: Alabama; Midwest: Cincinnati; West: Arizona
FINAL FOUR
East: Duke; South: Maryland; Midwest: Illinois; West: Utah
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Duke over Maryland